Monthly Archives: May 2015

National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies March 2015

This is the government webpage where you can download the latest National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies, updated in March 2015.

The first couple of figures are matrices that show the potential risks covered, which are graded according to likelihood and severity of a “reasonable worst case scenario”.

Figure 1 is all about “terrorist and other malicious attacks”: cyber attacks and physical attacks, on transport systems and infrastructure, and on crowds. The startling thing for me, in this figure, is that “smaller scale CBR terrorist attacks” are specifically mentioned. They have a Medium/Low probability, and a rating of 3/5 in terms of “overall relative impact” – exactly the same as an infrastructure attack. I definitely need to research more on terrorism as a whole. This is very sobering, and needs a lot more thought.

Figure 2 is more varied, and it’s actually titled “Other Risks”, which implies a great deal about how important the terrorism risks are thought to be. Pandemic influenza is highest, and I’ve blogged about that twice, though there’s more to say in the future. Effusive volcanic eruption is listed here as well, and fortunately I’ve covered that, to some degree.

Various sorts of weather events follow this, along with “widespread electricity failure”, the first time that’s been listed in it’s own right, apparently. I’ll definitely write about that specifically in a near-future post. Major accidents, industrial disruption, public disorder and animal diseases are the other issues listed. Quite a mix, and many of the possibilities are pretty disturbing.

All of these are big, intense events. Many preppers focus on the smaller, individual events first – illness, redundancy, house fires and the like, and that makes a great deal of sense, but the big events may still happen, there’s no doubt about it. It’s certainly possible to ensure your own relative safety from cyber attacks, by good backup practices amongst other things, and there are also things to be done to mitigate the effects of pandemics, to some degree.

The next risk mentioned is coastal flooding, on the scale of the 1953 disaster. Flood defences have made the east coast a good deal safer since then – apparently, the 2013 flooding was worse, but the impact much less, because of the defences and flood warnings we now have. And that’s an argument for good prepping if ever I heard it.

A widespread electricity failure, it’s now recognised, would be catastrophic. It’s never happened nationally, but it’s not impossible – even the storms of December 2013 affected over a million properties – how many people was that? And the transport system too – I was travelling on the 23rd December, and happened to have an early train leaving Euston Station. By the time I reached my destination, a large proportion of the railway network had stopped running, and I was very lucky to be able to relax in comfort at my destination. Hundreds of thousands of other travellers weren’t so lucky, but personal preps would have made their situations more tolerable, at least.

As for the domestic electricity supply, most people were re-connected on that occasion within 24 hours. That’s bad enough in a wet, cold winter (especially so close to Christmas), but 16,000 properties were without electricity for more than 2 days. And in a national event, there’s a process called Black Start that would be followed – but it would take up to five days, and “it could be weeks before some parts of the network are fully recovered and power is restored”. That’s a hugely important statement, very sobering.

So, the most important new posts to come specifically from this report include:

  • CBRN precautions
  • terrorism
  • cyber security
  • widespread electricity failure
  • weather events.

Other elements, which still need to be covered, are major transport and industrial accidents, public disorder and disruptive industrial action. It’s not often a government report can make you think genuinely about your own safety, but this is one of those times.

For me personally, I know least of all about CBRN precautions, so that’s what I’ll be researching first, even though it’s not the most likely, especially as there’s a note in there that the government will be “making improvements to the communications plans to ensure that the public know what they can do to minimise the risk to them.” That would be great if they actually did that beforehand. And then widespread electricity failure, which could be very troubling indeed – and it’s inevitable that there will be some electricity failures, it happens regularly. The only issue is where, and how many will be affected: the more, the worse, of course. If my own area is affected, I aim to be able to get through without too many problems, and to ensure that my family do too, as well as a few vulnerable elderly neighbours who need a bit of a hand now and then.

Watch this space!

The trip to Ypres, a sense of humour and my Every Day Carry

There was actually quite a lot of fun involved in my recent trip to Ypres, as well as some solemn moments In Memoriam. That’s the atmosphere even at the Menin Gate ceremony itself – the local people who work so tirelessly don’t put on a faux long face, even as they line up with their wreaths, they’re chatting quietly and chuckling quietly with one another. There is a point made before the ceremony begins that there’s to be no applause, during or after, and that seems appropriate. We applaud more readily than we used to – but applause would feel misplaced, it’s true.

Ypres has found something else in its history, to help people have a bit of fun. It started off pretty gloomy – throwing live cats from a tall tower, which happened all over Europe in the Middle Ages, I’m afraid – but its become a carnival devoted to cats instead. This is the brochure of the latest carnival:

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It has made me think about attitudes to prepping, and to being a prepper. It’s a serious business, after all – we’re trying to ensure the safety of our loved ones – but people can lose their way in prepping, and become far, far too intense about it all. Most preppers know this, and that’s why they talk about zombies; they know perfectly well that there aren’t any zombies, or anything else, waiting around the corner, and that the fears can be overstated, and talking about the zombies is just a way to have a bit of fun with it all, sort of keeping a sense of proportion.

People with dependent children are likely to be the ones who feel this ambiguity most deeply: they want to protect their children and help them be self sufficient, but they also want to give them a carefree childhood too. So preppers with children will nearly always pay great attention to fun and entertainment, and they’ll stock up on things that can provide that – cartoons, books, packs of cards, board games, colouring books and all sorts of toys that you can only see nowadays in an artisan toy shop made of sustainably produced wood.

Adults need to remember about the sense of fun. And although I don’t have kids, I do have a sense of humour. Really, I do.

Below, for instance, is my Every Day Carry torch … yes it is, that penguin. It’s a child’s torch, obviously, but for an EDC torch, it’s perfectly adequate. Its got LED lights, and the little sticky out thing on the side, that looks like the penguin’s wing, is actually a hand crank! I smile every time I see it, and that makes it worthwhile to me. And yes, I took it to Ypres.

My lovely penguin torch
My lovely penguin torch

So, what’s the rest of my Every Day Carry? Having just published my kindle book last month, Getting Home In An Emergency (shameless plug), what did I do on this journey to Belgium? What if there’d been an emergency of some sort? Well, we were in a car, so we brought more than if we were travelling by train or plane:

  • food! Carbohydrates, and protein that wouldn’t go off – dried fruit, nuts and seeds, peanut butter, energy bars, rice cakes, oat cakes, a few tins of potatoes and sweetcorn, cheese sandwiches, that sort of thing. Between the two of us, we had a week’s worth!
  • several bottles of water, and shelf stable fruit purees.
  • satnav. In everyday terms, it makes travel to unfamiliar places so easy. And it takes you on some surprisingly small roads – at one stage, we were on a single track road, and we had to use the passing places because of the farm vehicles, that was good to see.
  • two atlases, in case the satnav went down, and we could see our route roughly at any time.
  • lots of layers of clothes, as the forecast was hot, plus wet weather gear in case the forecast was wrong.
  • we both had first aid kits with us.
  • a few extras of my own as well – chlorine tablets, a couple of torches, a roll of toilet paper.
  • my travel partner isn’t a prepper as such, though they also like to be prepared, but I also had my own regular every day keyring carry, shown in the photo below (I’ve taken the items off the keyring, so they can be seen more clearly).

Did we use any of this? We used most of it to some degree, actually, which pleased me.

It was natural enough in most cases – if you’re taking Eurotunnel, its sensible to use the time in the car to have a car-based picnic, especially if you’re just on a short trip, so that once you’re at Calais you can speed off to wherever you’re going, and thats what we did. We did check the satnav by looking at the atlas, as we had a sequence of destinations in mind.

We also locked the doors while we were still on the train on the outward journey. We saw at least a dozen would-be immigrants running across the motorway almost directly in front of us; there had been a real struggle a few days previously, and we were very watchful for carjackers, though luckily we didn’t get caught in any traffic queues, so we never had to slow down.

But the funniest use of preps had to be on our return journey: we bought the makings of our fresh sandwiches at a little supermarket, and one ingredient was ready-sliced cheese. Not something I’d use normally, but on a trip, why not? Opening the pack, though – that was a different story, my scissors were safely packed away in my trolley case.

Answer: my seatbelt cutter! It was smooth, it was safe, it was quick. Sorted! And my non-prepper travel partner found out about a cheap, lightweight safety device that could save lives in an accident. I think I made a convert.

So what’s in that picture?

It’s very sparse, my everyday keyring carry, because I work from home – for me, most of the time, being “away from home” means being 12 minutes walk away at maximum, in the centre of the little town where I live nowadays. That’s near enough to pop back and forth without needing supplies, so I don’t carry supplies. The only reason I carry these things every day is that they’re on my keyring, and I’m not taking them on and off all the time, there’s no harm in carrying them all the time, so I do.

My Seat Belt Cutter (centre left at the bottom)

I used to have a pink one, but it was plastic, and it broke. This one is all business, and has several other little holes and edges that do all sorts of other things. It’s made of stainless steel, and it looks absolutely wicked, but there’s no malicious intent behind it – it’s a seatbelt cutter! And it’s lasted longer than my pink plastic one, and that’s what matters. It also contains an “oxygen tank opener, 1/4″ wrench, bottle opener, flathead screwdriver, lanyard hole and keyring”. I use the keyring hole, obviously, and I’ve now used the seatbelt cutting blade to open a pack of cheese slices, but that’s it.

My whistle (bottom right)

This is the other genuine prepping attachment – if you’re caught up in a terrorist attack, or you’re in a car accident and the car you’re in is now invisible from the road, you can draw the attention of the rescuers, as long as you’ve got breath to blow the whistle. I genuinely think this is important.

My little knife, UK legal (top left)

This “knife” has a blade about half an inch long. It too would have opened my pack of ready-sliced cheese. You’d be able to sharpen a pencil with it, as my dad used to do. You could cut a shoelace if you need to tie on an improvised bandage. That’s about it.

A handcuff key (top right)

Now, this isn’t really a prep for me. Although I have seen it discussed on forums, I actually dug this out from existing supplies, namely a set of thumbcuffs bought at an alternative-type gift shop on the south coast. It’s very lightweight, and I think it’s quite funny to have it on my keyring. There. I’ve said it. There’s that sense of humour thing again …

Here’s my penguin torch too …

My lovely penguin torch
My lovely penguin torch

I have two other torches. One on a headband, as that’s recommended if you’re doing something in the dark that requires two hands, like rummaging for a piece of equipment during a power cut, or even changing a car wheel. My second is a hefty thing that commands respect, as well as a bright light.

The thing is, we’re human beings, we need humour to stay sane and to keep a sense of proportion. If there were a huge disaster, and I gave my penguin torch to someone to help them get home, for instance, maybe it would raise a smile for them. Why not? In the meantime, it raises a smile for me. That’s good.